KENYA WARNS OF HEAVY OCTOBER–DECEMBER RAINS AS El NINO COULD PERSIST INTO 2027

The Kenya Meteorological Service has urged Kenyans and government agencies to step up preparations ahead of the October–December 2026 short-rains season, with much of the country expected to receive above-average rainfall.
The warning was issued during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF13), where experts presented the forecast for the upcoming short-rains season.
According to the outlook, approximately 80 per cent of the country could experience above-average rainfall, with some areas likely to record prolonged wet spells and occasional heavy storms.
The anticipated rains have raised concerns over flooding, flash floods, landslides and other weather-related hazards, particularly in areas that are vulnerable to extreme weather.
Authorities have consequently been encouraged to strengthen early-warning systems and disaster preparedness measures, while communities are advised to remain alert and take precautions ahead of the rainy season.
The forecast comes amid the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization has projected that the current El Niño episode could persist into February 2027, although its effects are not expected to be uniform across all parts of Kenya.
Meteorological experts have emphasized that El Niño does not automatically mean that every part of the country will experience extreme rainfall. Local weather patterns, geographical differences and other climate factors will influence the amount of rainfall received in different regions.
The Kenya Meteorological Service has therefore called for early action rather than waiting for disasters to occur. Farmers, residents in flood-prone areas, county governments and national agencies are encouraged to use official weather information when making decisions.
With the October–December rains approaching, Kenyans are being urged to prepare their homes and farms, avoid crossing flooded rivers and roads, and pay attention to official weather and emergency alerts.
The government and county authorities also face the task of ensuring drainage systems are maintained and emergency response teams are adequately prepared to respond to flooding and other weather-related emergencies.
The latest forecast underscores the importance of climate preparedness as Kenya continues to experience increasingly variable and extreme weather conditions.